Table 3: Sequences that led to 3 rd-down and long (>5 yards). Table 2: Sequences that led to 3 rd-down with 2 nd and long (>5 yards). When one ends up with more than 5 yards to go on 3 rd-down, a passing play looks like a most likely way to get out. In fact, all sequences ending with a run are the least chosen sequences. Conversion rates of these sequences plummet as well. The order of play sequences at 3 rd and long changes dramatically, where now sequences ending on a running play are in the lower half of the table (Table 3). Then we just have to move the chains and running the ball is the most reliable way to do it. So, in the case of prr we start from a passing play, that was mostly completed (average completion rate in NFL is around 65%) and a decent amount of yards was made. In reality adjustments are made depending on the outcome of the previous play and the situation resulting. But play sequence is not chosen by a robot on 1 st-down and is followed with out change no matter what happens. It leads to most 3 rd-downs converted and leads to least 2 nd and 3 rd and longs. Looking at the Table 1 one could think: Oh, great, the best sequence of plays is passing, running, running or prr.

Table 1: Sequences that led to 3 rd-down and their conversion rate.

So, let us look at conversion rates and 2 nd and long and 3 rd and long rates for a sequence of three plays: Sequence We have excluded sequences, that include penalty – we want to study play calling in ideal situations without penalty occurring. To study play calling I have decided to look at sequences of passing and running plays, that led to 3 rd-down and their conversion rate (QB scrambles were removed for purposes of this study). Let us start with some basic ones: What plays, rushing or passing, to call? What sequences of plays lead to most 3 rd-downs converted? How does the difference between running the ball and passing the ball look like? Why is it still a good idea to run the ball? At last, some interesting questions can be asked and answered. So, it is possible to study the game’s statistics on play-by-play basis and potentially see its inner workings.Īfter few tries (some data sets on web have discrepancies, check before using) I have found good NFL play-by-play data (data set includes play-by-play data spanning the years 2009-2019). In addition there are only two distinct type of offensive plays that most plays (except kicking plays) can be categorized into: plays where ball gets passed forward by throwing and plays where it is carried forward by a player without a forward pass. Since each play is clearly separated from the next one, it is possible to record detailed statistics related to character of plays played. The snap by snap nature of football makes it a rich source of various data.

Nfl play by play data